Policy Catalysts + Hkrang shapraw ai lam hpe grau kaja hkra galaw ya ai -Ra kadawn ai lam a shamu shamawt lam gaw PVC hpaga lam hta n-gun jaw ai lam hpe n-gun jaw ya ai

Aten galu hta, Miwa mungdan a PVC hpaga lam hpe kaja ai ningmu a matu ngang kang ai npawt nhpang ni hte madi shadaw da ai. Langai, "anti-involution" masa ni hpe matut manoi galaw sa wa ai, dai hta wan n-gun manu garan ai lam hte maigan de dut shabra ai ahkun hkanse hpe shayawm kau ai lam ni lawm ai, n-gun n rawng ai atsam hpe lawan ladan yeng seng kau lu na re. Lahkawng, mungkan ting na PVC atsam nnan rawt jat lam gaw du na shaning ni hta loi mi sha naw rai nna, jaw ya ai-ra kadawn ai lam hpe loi loi hte rawt jat wa shangun na re. Masum, Miwa mungdan a PVC hpaga lam a mungkan ting shingjawng lu ai atsam gaw matut nna rawt jat wa nga ai, maigan de dut shabra ai gat lawk ni hta jat wa na shara kaba nga ai.

Mungdan kata na "hpyen masa ni hpe ninghkap ai" masa ni hpe grau sung wa hkra galaw nga ai masa hta, 2026 ning January shata 24 ya kaw nna 31 ya du hkra, Guo Tai Futures a sawk sagawn hpung gaw, Miwa mungdan hta PVC- galaw shapraw ai ginra kaba masum rai nga ai Shaanxi, Ningxia hte Inner Mongolia- de sa du gawan ai. Yaw shada ai lam gaw, PVC hpaga lam hta wan n-gun manu n bung ai hte maigan de dut shabra ai ahkun hkanse shayawm ai lam hpe yeng seng kau ai zawn re ai madung tara masa ni a tengman ai akyu hpe jep joi yu na matu rai nna, n-gun shayawm ai lam, corporate bungli galaw ai masa, hte on-site supply-demand realities of5.The surveyed.4. carbide-madung tawn ai PVC n-gun, Miwa mungdan a PVC n-gun yawng hta na 25.55% hte mungdan ting na calcium carbide-madung ai PVC n-gun hta 36% hpe madi shadaw ya ai. Dai hta n-ga, shanhte hta calcium carbide ton wan 22.89 nga ai rai nna, Miwa mungdan a calcium carbide yawng hta na 60.88% rai nga ai. Dai hta n-ga, ndai ginra ni gaw wan n-gun manu n bung ai hku masat masa galaw na matu pilot zone ni rai nna, sawk sagawn ai sample hpe ndai hpaga lam hpe grai hkrang shapraw ya lu ai.

Ndai sawk sagawn ai lam gaw, wan n-gun manu n bung ai hte PVC dut shabra ai ahkun hkanse hpe shayawm kau ai ngu ai, tara masa kaba lahkawng hpe madung tawn ai. "anti-involution" policy masa npu na madung ladat ni hku nna, lahkawng yan gaw PVC hpaga lam a manu jahpu hkrang masa, maigan de dut shabra ai lam hte atsam marai garan ginhka ai lam ni hpe grai hkra machyi shangun ai.

Wan n-gun manu garan ai lam hte seng nna, Shaanxi Mungdaw a Hpaga Lam hte Shiga Hpaji Dap gaw, 2025 ning December shata hta, bawngban hpawng laika langai hpe shapraw nna, July praw 1 ya shani kaw nna, wan n-gun manu garan ai lam hpe tara shang galaw sa wa na matu masing jahkrat da ai, dai hta, PVC carbi hte calcium carbi ni lawm ai, n-gun-law ai hpaga lam sanit hpe shinggrup da ai. Shaanxi mare na buga PVC hte calcium carbide n-gun gaw mungdan ting na 7.18% hte 9% rai nna, ndai tara masa gaw calcium carbide galaw shapraw ai manu hpe hkrak sha shadut ya na re. Dai hpe galaw ai shaloi, Shaanxi mare hta PVC galaw shapraw ai manu gaw ton mi hta yuan 70 rawt jat wa na re, dai gaw theoretical hku sawn la ai hta grau yawm ai. Enterprises ni gaw, nhprang wan sau quota hpe galai shai ai hte Inner Mongolia kaw na manu n law ai calcium carbide hpe shinggan kaw nna mari la ai hku nna, hkra machyi ai lam hpe shingdang lu ai, dai gaw buga na PVC galaw shapraw ai ni a ntsa e, teng sha hkra machyi ai lam hpe shadawn sharam sha byin shangun ai. measure, ndai gaw n-gun atsam-grai lang ai hpaga lam ni hpe tara shang hkang na matu hte hpaga lam a manu jahpu ni hpe gat lawk-madung tawn ai pat shingdang ai lam ni hpe gram lajang na matu ahkyak ai arung arai langai byin tai wa na hpe myit mada da ai.

January shata praw 9 ya shani hta, Ja gumhpraw Hkringmang Dap hte Mungdaw Ahkun Htawng Hkringmang Dap ni pawng nna,Photovoltaic hte kaga arung arai ni a matu maigan de dut shabra ai ahkun hkanse shayawm ai tara ni hpe gram lajang na hte seng nna ndau laika, dai hta PVC resin, n-plastic galaw da ai PVC hte plastic galaw da ai PVC ni hpe gram lajang ai lam a ginra hta asan sha lawm ai.Ndai tara masa gaw mungdan kata hta aten kadun-"rush export" byin wa ai hpe shabyin ya ai. Ya aten hta, PVC dut shabra ai ni law malawng gaw, February shata du hkra, pre-dut shabra ai order ni hpe pyi shayawm kau sai, hpaga hpung nkau mi gaw, maigan de dut shabra ai lam de myit maju jung na matu, mungdan kata na hpaga lam hpe pyi shayawm kau sai, shapraw ai madang hpe madi shadaw ya ai.Shipping schedules a majaw hkra machyi ai majaw, PVC dut shabra ai lam gaw March shata praw hta n-gun yawm mat na re. Sinpraw Dingda hte Dingda Asia mungdan ni hta marang htu ai aten hte rau, maigan de dut shabra ai lam gaw April shata ngut ai hpang, htuk manu ai galai shai ai aten de shang wa na rai nna, hkrat sum ai lam gaw July shata du hkra matut manoi nga na zawn rai nga ai. Raitim, aten galu hta, Miwa mungdan a dan dawng ai manu jahpu hte atsam marai akyu ni hpe yu yang, ndai tara masa gaw, maigan de dut shabra ai lam hpe jat wa shangun na hte, arung arai amyu myu hpe garan ginhka lu na matu karum ya na re. Dai aten hta, mungdan kata na ethylene-madung tawn ai PVC galaw shapraw ai ni a ntsa hkra machyi ai lam gaw nau n nga ai, Henan, Shandong hte kaga ginra ni hta manu kaba ai hpaga hpung ni gaw, atsam n-gun shayawm ai lam hpe hkrum sha na masa nga ai.

Corporate bungli hte seng nna, Shaanxi, Ningxia hte Inner Mongolia na PVC hpaga hpung ni gaw, sum machyi ai lam n nga ai sha, hkam kaja ai gumhpraw n-gun hpe madung hku nna hkan sa nga ai. 2025 ning December shata lapran- kaw nna-hpang daw de sha, PVC hte caustic soda manu ni grai hkrat sum ai majaw, hpaga hpung nkau mi gaw aten kadun laman gumhpraw n-gun yawm mat ai. Dai aten laman, manu kaji ai-PVC 4,000 yuan/tonne hte liquid caustic soda 2,000 yuan/tonne-a npu na hpaga yumga lam ni gaw nau n law ai, hpaga hpung ni gaw manu ni hpe ngang ngang jum tek da ai hte order signing ni hpe shayawm ai hku nna bai htang ai.Lahta na sawk sagawn ai aten laman, PVCb000. yuan/tonne, hte caustic soda manu ni gaw yuan/tonne 2,100–2,300 lapran hta naw nga nga ai majaw, hpaga lam a akyu hpe hkamja lam hte seng ai madang de bai nhtang wa shangun ai.

Capacity clearance hte seng nna, ndai hpaga lam gaw dan dawng ai ginra garan ginhka ai lam hpe madun dan nga ai. Coal hte power resources ni hta akyu nga ai hpe kam hpa let, dingdung daw ginra gaw PVC galaw shapraw na matu mungdan ting a manu jahpu npawt nhpang tai wa sai. Survey galaw ai hpaga hpung yawng gaw ndai ginra gaw n-gun shayawm ai lam hpe shawng nnan mu lu na n re ngu kam ma ai.Henan, Shandong hte kaga ginra ni hta Calcium carbide- hpe madung tawn ai PVC galaw shapraw ai ni gaw, manu grai law ai majaw lit li hkrum ai majaw, n-gun yawm mat na shawng nnan na batch hta lawm na grai sawng nga ai.By enterprise{neproducers{type}d5. tinang hkum nan-madu ai arung arai ni n law ai, manu jahpu hte sut masa manu jahpu law ai, by-products ni hta inventory pressure law ai zawn re ai mayak mahkak ni; nkau mi gaw maigan de dut shabra ai atsam n-gun kya ai majaw mung tsin-yam hkrum nga ai. Dai hte nhtan shai ai hku nna, sut hpaga hpung ni gaw grau kaja ai bungli galaw ai lam hte gat lawk hpe grau myit mada shara nga ai hpe matut manoi galaw nga ai, dai hpe hkum tsup ai hpaga lam npawt nhpang hpawng de ai lam, tinang nan -madu ai wan jak ni a manu jahpu akyu ni, manu jahpu hte dut mari ladat ni hpe galai shai mai ai lam ni madi shadaw ya ai.

Ndai sawk sagawn ai hta lawm ai PVC hpaga hpung 8 hta mungdaw-madu ai, sut masa hte ginjaw mungdaw-madu ai hpaga hpung ni (CSOEs) lawm nna, shanhte a lapran bungli galaw ai lam hta grai shai hkat ai lam ni nga ai.Mungdaw-madu ai hpaga hpung ni law malawng gaw n hkum tsup ai hpaga lam n-gun madi shadaw ai lam hte bungli galaw ai lam hta n-gun kaba ai lam ni hpe hkrum sha nga ai. Private enterprise ni gaw, manu jahpu hpe hkang lu ai hte galai shai ai bungli galaw ai lam ni a majaw, htawm hpang na gat lawk hpe myit mada shara nga ai. CSOE ni a product line nkau mi gaw sum mat ai hku hkawm sa nga ai raitim, shanhte gaw full-category product layout hte gumhpraw htingnut ai lam hta akyu ni hte ngang grin ai bungli ni hpe matut manoi galaw nga ai, gat lawk hpe sadi maja let myit mada ai myit masa hpe hkam la nga ai.

Policy hkra machyi ai lam ni, corporate bungli galaw ai lam ni hte on-site gat lawk masa ni hpe shingdaw yu yang, PVC gat lawk gaw aten kadun laman hta "Spring Festival garai n du shi yang tsaw ai, nhtoi htum ai hpang n law ai" ngu ai masa hpe madun na hpe myit mada ai. Aten galu hta, policy catalysts ni a dual driver ni hte madi shadaw ai marginal rawt jat lam hpe mu lu na rai nna, supply-demand dynamics ni hpe mung mu lu na re.

PVC gat lawk gaw Spring Festival a shawng e "minor spring gat lawk" hpe mu lu ai, dai hpe madung lam mali a majaw shadut ya ai:Langai, calcium carbide manu rawt jat wa ai gaw manu hpe madi shadaw ya ai.Lahkawng, mungdan kata na galaw shapraw ai ni a lapran PVC arung arai yawng gaw naw n law ai, pre-sale cycles gaw 4–2 weeks rai nga ai. Spring Festival a shawng na prut prut ai arai ni gaw, dut shabra ngut sai daram rai sai majaw, hpaga hpung ni hpe manu jahpu bawngban ai lam hta ngang kang ai shara de du shangun ai.Masum, dut shabra ai ahkun hkanse shayawm ai lam hpe yeng seng kau ai shawng na "rush exports" gaw manu ni hpe matut nna madi shadaw ya nga ai.Mali, caustic soda manu n law ai gaw PVC a manu jahpu maga de akyu jaw ai.

Raitim, Spring Festival ngut ai hpang, gat lawk hta gaw, n-gun law law hkrum na re. Maga mi hku nna, "rush export" window ngut ai hpang, maigan de dut shabra ai lam gaw hkrat sum mat na re. Maga mi hku nna, mungdan kata na arung arai ni hpe shayawm kau na lam hte mungdan kata na ra kadawn ai lam yawm mat na hpe myit mada ai lam ni, maigan de dut shabra ai ahkun hkanse shayawm ai lam hpe yeng seng kau ai lam ni hte rau, manu ni hpe grai hkra machyi shangun na re.

Aten galu hta, Miwa mungdan a PVC hpaga lam gaw ngang kang ai kaja ai npawt nhpang ni hpe matut manoi hkan sa nga ai.Shawng nnan, "anti-involution" masa ni hpe matut manoi galaw sa wa ai, dai hta wan n-gun manu garan ai lam hte maigan de dut shabra ai ahkun hkanse shayawm ai lam ni hpe yeng seng kau ai lam ni lawm ai, n-gun n rawng ai atsam hpe lawan ladan yeng seng kau lu na, hpaga lam atsam jat ai lam hpe grau kaja hkra galaw lu na re. 2026 ning hta Miwa mungdan a PVC n-gun hpe shaw la ai lam gaw ton 895,000 du wa na rai nna, mungkan ting na n-gun nnan gaw ton 705,000 sha rai na rai nna, n-gun shayawm hpang wa ai hpe madi madun ai re. Modest global PVC atsam jat wa ai hte du na shaning ni hta n-gun n rawng ai atsam hpe lawan ladan yeng seng kau ai gaw, jaw ya ai-demand balance hpe loi loi hte gram lajang wa shangun na re.Masum, Miwa PVC hpaga lam gaw manu jahpu hte atsam a akyu ni hpe asan sha gumrawng nga ai. Maigan mungdan ni hta n-gun n law ai lapran, Miwa mungdan a PVC hpaga lam a mungkan ting shingjawng lu ai atsam gaw matut nna n-gun ja wa nna, maigan de dut shabra lu ai atsam kaba hpe jaw ya nga ai.

Yawng hpe yu yang, gram lajang ai garan gachyan ai lam-ra sharawng ai lam hte "anti-involution" policy catalysts ni gaw PVC hpaga lam hpe lahkawng lang madi shadaw ya ai, shi a aten galu-kaja ai masa hpe madi shadaw ya ai.